US Data Center Moratoriums Have Delayed Only About 2.3 Gigawatts, SemiAnalysis Estimates

More than 300 local data center moratoriums in the United States are likely to delay only about 2.3 gigawatts (GW) of planned capacity, according to SemiAnalysis, which shared the estimate on X on October 17, 2026. The research firm still forecasts 38 GW of US data center IT capacity coming online in 2027, more than double the 2026 figure, Tom's Hardware reports.

The figures come from a SemiAnalysis report published on September 15, 2026. Local pushback over power bills, water and land use has become a recurring question for the AI data center buildout: The Information counted more than 500 local bans in July (The Information via Tom's Hardware), and Data Center Watch put projects blocked or delayed by local opposition between April and June 2026 at $68 billion (Bloomberg via Tom's Hardware).

What did SemiAnalysis find?

SemiAnalysis estimates that about 2.3 GW of planned US capacity is genuinely delayed by local moratoriums and by New York's statewide order, out of roughly 21 GW that sits inside restricted areas. The firm says its forecast has "barely moved over the last 12 months."

At the local level (cities, townships and counties), about 20 GW lies inside a restricted boundary, but only 1,525 MW of it, or 7.6%, is delayed, according to the report. Three projects account for that: an AWS campus in Ohio, a powered land developer's campus in Pennsylvania and a site in Colorado. New York's order touches about 1.4 GW, of which about 0.8 GW faces a meaningful delay, the firm estimates.

A moratorium, in the firm's definition, is a temporary legal pause of a few months to a year that almost always freezes new applications rather than revoking approvals already granted. SemiAnalysis tracks more than 400 local instruments across 17 states, more than 300 of them enacted as of September 2026, and matched each active restriction to individual projects, partly with AI research agents.

Of the 38 GW forecast for 2027, 22 GW is already under vertical construction and most of the other 16 GW is financed and in site work, the firm says. The 2.3 GW works out to about 6% of that forecast. 2027 is also the year Microsoft has said it starts multi-gigawatt Maia chip deployments.

Why do so few bans delay projects?

Most moratoriums never reach the projects due in the next two years, SemiAnalysis argues, because capacity already under construction or fully permitted is out of their reach. The firm says that covers all of 2026 and most of 2027.

County moratoriums also often stop at city lines, short pauses may expire before later projects need approval, and litigation or equipment lead times may already set the schedule, the firm says.

Michigan, the state with the most enacted local moratoriums, carries effectively zero pipeline exposure, according to the report; a Google campus there sits on industrial land already zoned for data processing. SpaceX's planned data center in Brownsville, Texas, is on 444 acres the city removed from its limits days before a city moratorium was approved, SemiAnalysis says. One pause did bind: a Pennsylvania township adopted it in June 2026 before NorthPoint filed for the special exception its campus needs, pushing local approval into 2027.

Does the estimate cover the Texas permit freeze?

No. The 2.3 GW figure leaves out the permit pause at the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), which Gov. Greg Abbott ordered on September 21, 2026, six days after the SemiAnalysis report was published, according to law firm Bracewell.

The directive halts all TCEQ permits related to data center projects, including those for behind-the-meter power, meaning generation built on site instead of power drawn from the grid. It applies whether or not a project is in the interconnection queue of ERCOT, the operator of most of the Texas grid. Bracewell expects the pause to last until ERCOT finishes its review of data centers in mid-December 2026, and TCEQ must report on its compliance to the governor's office by Monday, October 19, 2026.

The report did cover an earlier step: in early August 2026, Abbott paused data center approvals through ERCOT and the state's Public Utility Commission pending an audit (Tom's Hardware). SemiAnalysis judged that step a net positive for off-grid developers. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, one of the report's authors, said on the firm's podcast that a strict state-level moratorium blocking even off-grid projects would worry the firm, citing Texas as an example (Tom's Hardware).

How does this fit with reports of a fraying buildout?

SemiAnalysis measures only delays caused by moratoriums, while other recent tallies count delayed projects more broadly. The Financial Times reported on October 18, 2026 that America's $10 trillion AI infrastructure boom is starting to fray. Techmeme's summary of that report cites a RegLayer count of more than 47 large US projects delayed, withdrawn or blocked in 2026 and a Bernstein estimate that about 35% of the planned US pipeline is credible (FT via Techmeme).

Politics adds pressure. In an August SemiAnalysis poll, 46% of US voters viewed data centers unfavorably and 29% favorably, while 46% viewed AI favorably and 34% unfavorably.

In a post SemiAnalysis quoted, Archie Hall of The Economist called moratoriums "much more bark than bite" for now, after a trip through Michigan and Ohio (Tom's Hardware). SemiAnalysis says moratoriums would have to become "materially more widespread and restrictive" to delay the buildout.

What we don't know yet

• How much capacity each of the three delayed local projects accounts for, and which Colorado site is affected.
• How many gigawatts of the 2027 forecast the TCEQ permit freeze could delay, and whether it ends in mid-December as Bracewell expects.
• What TCEQ tells the governor's office in its October 19 compliance report.
• Whether new moratoriums after the November 2026 elections reach projects that are not yet permitted.